The lights are bright, the track is pristine, and the stakes have never been higher. As we hurtle toward January 24, the New Zealand racing community is buzzing with anticipation for the 100th National Yearling Sale milestone. Ellerslie is ready to host the richest night in the country’s history, featuring the $1M 2YO and the $1.5M 3YO Mile. For every owner and breeder, the dream is simple: find a Karaka Millions 2026 filly capable of conquering the turf and securing a legacy. The atmosphere is electric, trainers are sweating the small stuff, and the “Road to Ellerslie” is narrowing for those still looking to qualify.
Sizzling Trials and the Karaka Millions 2026 Filly Bubble
The 2-year-old division is a pressure cooker. Right now, all eyes are on the “Order of Entry,” where every dollar earned is a step closer to the starting gates. State The Obvious is currently the name on everyone’s lips, representing the first crop of the champion Sword of State. Her recent performance in the Mark Anderson Memorial Maiden (1000m) was a masterclass in grit, navigating a heavy track to secure a vital win.
Despite the win, she sits in a precarious position. Being 20th in the order of entry means her connections are playing a waiting game. Trainer Graham Richardson remains composed, refusing to over-race his stable star just to chase a spot. The strategy here is quality over quantity, as they hope for scratchings to elevate her from the emergency list.
- The Progeny Factor: State The Obvious is proving that Sword of State’s offspring have the temperament to handle high-pressure environments.
- The Earnings Gap: With $11,285 in the bank, she needs the luck of the draw to make the final 14.
- The Trainer’s View: Richardson describes her as “strong and kind,” traits that are essential for the chaos of a million-dollar 2-year-old dash.
Power and Pedigree: The 2YO Speedsters Chasing Glory
While some are fighting for a spot, others are already being marked as the ones to beat. Sweetest Thing, a daughter of Hello Youmzain, carries the weight of massive expectations. Why? Because she was identified by Chris Rutten, the man with the “Midas Touch” when it comes to selecting Karaka Millions champions. Based in Roydon Bergerson’s stable, she is being prepared with a specific focus on the Ellerslie sprint.
Then there is Lassified. She is a prime example of the “Stay Inside” influence currently sweeping through the New Zealand ranks. Her recent stakes-winning performance wasn’t just a win; it was a statement. She possesses an explosive turn of foot that trainers look for when the tempo is hot. For these fillies, the Karaka Millions 2026 filly category isn’t just about speed—it’s about the ability to settle in a field of twenty and find a gap when it matters most.
Heavyweight Clash: The Karaka Millions 2026 Filly 3YO Contenders
Transitioning to the 3-year-old $1.5M Mile, we move from potential to proven power. Lollapalooza is the undisputed queen of this bracket. A Group 1 winner by El Roca, she recently used the Eight Carat Classic (1600m) to shake off the cobwebs. Her targets are ambitious, including a potential tilt at the $4M NZB Kiwi, but the Karaka Millions remains the immediate priority.
Her main rival, Fleeting Star, is the definition of a “tough out.” With six starts and six podium finishes, she is the most consistent horse in the crop. Her third-place finish in the Eight Carat Classic showed she can match it with the best at a mile. Meanwhile, Romilly is taking the “road less traveled.” Her trainer is opting for a strategic change, applying blinkers to sharpen her focus for a high-intensity 1400m run on the same night. These three represent the elite level of the Karaka Millions 2026 filly talent pool, where every tactical decision is magnified.
The Strategic Gambit: Order of Entry and Te Akau Tactics
Success at Ellerslie isn’t just found on the track; it’s found in the planning room. Te Akau Racing has dominated this event, winning eight out of the last nine years. Their influence on the race tempo—led by horses like Kinnaird—forces every other trainer to adapt. The qualification battle is fierce, and the “Order of Entry” is the ultimate judge.
| Horse Name | Trainer | Status | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| State The Obvious | Richardson / Norvall | 6th Emergency | Awaiting scratchings; Matamata Breeders’ “Plan B” |
| Sweetest Thing | Roydon Bergerson | Top 14 | Direct path; focused on peak speed |
| Lollapalooza | Team Williams | Confirmed | Short freshen-up in the paddock |
| Fleeting Star | Walker / Bergerson | Confirmed | Maintenance gallops; consistency focus |
The “Wait-and-See” approach is becoming the trend for 2026. Rather than “panic running” horses at regional tracks like Te Aroha to secure the $10,000 winning cheques needed to qualify, trainers are prioritizing the horse’s health. If a filly like State The Obvious misses the cut, the Matamata Breeders’ Stakes (Gr.2) serves as the perfect secondary target.
Conclusion: A Landmark Night for New Zealand Racing
As the sun sets on the final week of trials, the stage is set for a historic night. The 100th National Yearling Sale has brought an extra layer of prestige to the 2026 season, and the fillies are ready to take center stage. From the pedigree power of Cambridge Stud to the tactical brilliance of trainers like Richardson and the Te Akau juggernaut, the depth of this crop is undeniable.
The final field for the Karaka Millions 2026 filly contenders will be a mix of established stars and “bubble” survivors. Whether it’s the grit of a 2-year-old fighting for entry or the class of a 3-year-old miler, the action at Ellerslie on January 24 will be nothing short of legendary. This is where champions are made, and this year, the fillies look more than ready to claim the throne.
